EU SMP at 3.37 €/kg — strongest upward move in the complex, supported by tender activity and recovering global demand.
Block butter demand remains cautious. Packaged butter demand stays robust via retailer promotions. Frozen/fresh price spread widening.
Germany Jan–Aug +6.0% YoY — the single largest volume contributor to EU supply growth with +1.3 Mio. t additional milk delivered.
World export country milk supply growth slowed to +1.1% in August from +3.1% YTD average — a significant deceleration entering Q4.
Sweet Whey Powder food-grade lower limit raised — now scarcely available below 2.00 €/kg in Germany amid good export demand.
Brent easing to 126.6 USD/bbl from September high of ~131 USD/bbl provides modest relief on production costs heading into winter.
全体的な市場状況：EUの酪農市場は10月に入り、慎重な均衡状態を維持しています。2026年前半は前年比+2.5〜5.1%という力強い集荷成長が続きましたが、8月には+0.8%まで急減速しました。この減速は、前年の高いベース効果と、主要産地での不順な気象条件が重なった結果です。
価格の二極化：最大の市場テーマは、タンパク質市場と脂肪市場の分岐です。SMPは入札活動と機関需要に支えられ、直近4週間で+6.5%上昇した一方、バターは季節的な消費需要の軟化により−4.0%後退しています。WMPは輸出需要に支えられ底堅さを維持しています。
供給シグナル：ZMBはEU-27の2026年通年集荷予測を前年比+1.8%に下方修正。秋の調整局面が深まる中、オランダ（9月：前年比−1.7%）など一部加盟国はすでに前年水準を下回っています。
EU SMPは3.37 €/kg — テンダー活動とグローバル需要回復に支えられ、今月最も強い価格上昇を記録。
ブロックバター需要は慎重なまま。小売プロモーションによるパック製品需要は堅調継続。冷凍品と生鮮品の価格差が拡大中。
ドイツは1〜8月で+6.0%増加し、EU増産分の約40%（+130万t）を占める最大の貢献国。
輸出主要国の生乳供給成長率は8月に+1.1%へ急減速。年初来平均+3.1%から大きく低下し第4四半期入り。
食品グレードの甘性ホエイパウダーの下限価格が引き上げ — ドイツ国内で2.00 €/kg未満の入手がほぼ困難に。
ブレント原油は126.6 USD/bblへ低下（9月高値：約131 USD/bbl）。冬季に向けた生産コストへの多少の緩和材料。
Panorama macro: O complexo lácteo da UE entra em outubro num estado de equilíbrio cauteloso. Após um primeiro semestre de 2026 excecional — com entregas de leite sistematicamente acima dos níveis do ano anterior em 2,5–5,1% — o ritmo de expansão arrefeceu marcadamente em agosto para apenas +0,8% em termos homólogos.
Divergência de preços: O maior tema de mercado este mês é a divisão entre os mercados de proteína e de gordura. Os preços do SMP subiram +6,5% nas últimas quatro semanas, impulsionados por concursos de aquisição e procura institucional, enquanto a manteiga recuou −4,0% com a redução sazonal da procura dos consumidores.
Sinais de oferta: O ZMB prevê entregas de leite na UE-27 em 2026 em +1,8% acima de 2025, com revisão em baixa face às estimativas anteriores, à medida que a correção de outono se aprofunda.
SMP da UE em 3,37 €/kg — maior subida do complexo, apoiada por concursos e recuperação da procura global.
Procura de manteiga em bloco mantém-se cautelosa. Manteiga embalada com forte escoamento via promoções de retalho. Diferencial congelado/fresco em alargamento.
Alemanha jan–ago: +6,0% em termos homólogos — maior contribuinte de volume para o crescimento da oferta na UE, com +1,3 Mio. t adicionais.
O crescimento da oferta dos países exportadores mundiais abrandou para +1,1% em agosto, face a uma média de +3,1% no acumulado do ano.
O limite inferior do soro de leite doce grau alimentar foi elevado — dificilmente disponível abaixo de 2,00 €/kg na Alemanha.
Brent recua para 126,6 USD/barril face à máxima de setembro (~131 USD/barril), proporcionando algum alívio nos custos de produção.
EU-27 collective: Total milk deliveries in the EU-27 reached approximately 103.6 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, representing a +3.1% increase compared to the same period in 2025 — an additional 3.2 million tonnes of milk. However, this headline figure masks a sharp late-season deceleration: while January posted +5.1% growth, August came in at just +0.8%, the lowest reading of the year.
Structural normalisation: ZMB notes that this deceleration is partly attributable to the difficult prior-year base — EU deliveries had unusually risen during August and subsequent months of 2025, contrary to typical seasonal patterns. This base effect will remain a headwind through Q4 2026. Adverse weather — heat and drought in France, Austria, Poland, and parts of Germany — also weighed on August output.
Forward look: ZMB forecasts full-year 2026 EU milk deliveries at +1.8% versus 2025. The Netherlands already reported a −1.7% decline in September, and further member states are expected to slip below prior-year levels in the coming months. Feed cost pressures from the 2026 harvest — poor in quality and quantity — add structural headwinds into 2027.
Content quality: Average EU fat content stood at 4.12% and protein at 3.45% through August — both marginally higher than 2025 YTD averages, though August itself saw lower fat and protein versus the prior-year month. Butter/SMP price convergence reflects improving protein relative to fat values.
| Member State | Jan–Aug 2025 (1,000 t) | Jan–Aug 2026 (1,000 t) | Change Jan–Aug | Change Aug Only |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 21,678 | 22,968 | +6.0% | +3.1% |
| France | 16,232 | 16,580 | +2.1% | +0.4% |
| Netherlands | 9,245 | 9,617 | +4.0% | +0.7% |
| Poland | 9,371 | est. +1.5–2.0% | ~+1.5% | n/a |
| Ireland | 6,798 | 6,626 | −2.5% | −8.4% |
| Spain | 5,009 | 5,095 | +1.7% | +3.3% |
| Denmark | 3,882 | 3,973 | +2.3% | +0.1% |
| Austria | 2,367 | 2,516 | +6.3% | +0.7% |
| Czech Republic | 2,284 | 2,372 | +3.9% | +2.7% |
| Finland | 1,458 | 1,471 | +0.9% | +0.5% |
| Sweden | 1,948 | est. +1.1% | ~+1.1% | n/a |
| Hungary | 1,240 | 1,232 | −0.7% | −3.3% |
| Portugal | 1,303 | 1,329 | +2.0% | +3.4% |
| Romania | 741 | 739 | −0.3% | −3.3% |
| Latvia | 568 | 551 | −3.0% | −0.3% |
| Estonia | 618 | 550 | −11.1% | −11.6% |
| Lithuania | 953 | est. slight decline | ~−2% | n/a |
| Bulgaria | 449 | 455 | +1.2% | +3.6% |
| Greece | 414 | 428 | +3.4% | +13.3% |
| Croatia | 259 | 265 | +2.5% | +1.3% |
| EU-27 Total | ~100,449 | ~103,600 | +3.1% | +0.8% |
Export country supply growth: The combined milk supply of the world's key dairy export countries grew by an average of +3.1% in the first eight months of 2026 — the highest level in recent years. However, August growth slowed to just +1.1%, the weakest monthly reading of the year, signalling a global supply normalisation heading into Q4.
Oceania: New Zealand led with +4.2% cumulative growth through September 2026. Australia recorded +3.8% Jan–Aug. Both markets showed slowdown in their most recent months, with New Zealand September at only +1.0% — the weakest growth since the season began, ahead of potential El Niño weather impacts.
Americas: North America grew +2.4% cumulative, led by the USA (+2.6%). South America expanded +3.3%, with Argentina (+4.1%), Uruguay (+9.2%), and Chile (+4.7%) outperforming. Brazil grew +2.2% in H1 2026. Canada remained modest at +0.4%.
Non-EU Europe: Milk volumes in non-EU European countries declined slightly (−0.3% cumulative). Russia contracted −1.0%, while the UK remained broadly stable YoY, and Switzerland saw growth from the start of the year subsequently turn negative. Belarus grew modestly +0.5%.
EU-27全体：EU-27の2026年1〜8月の生乳集荷量は約1億360万トン（前年同期比+3.1%、+320万t）に達しました。ただし、この見出し数字は顕著な季節後半の減速を隠しています。1月は+5.1%の成長を記録しましたが、8月はわずか+0.8%（年間最低水準）まで落ち込みました。
構造的な正常化：ZMBによると、この減速は部分的に前年高ベース効果によるものです。2025年8月以降、EUの集荷量が例年に反して上昇するという異例の動きを示していたため、この高ベース効果が2026年Q4を通じた逆風となります。また、フランス、オーストリア、ポーランド、ドイツの一部での熱波と乾燥も8月の産出量に影響しました。
見通し：ZMBは2026年EU通年乳量を前年比+1.8%と予測（下方修正）。オランダは9月にすでに前年比−1.7%を記録しており、今後数ヶ月で前年水準を下回る加盟国がさらに増える見通しです。
乳成分品質：8月の平均乳脂率は4.12%、乳タンパク率は3.45%（いずれも前年同期比でわずかに高水準）。ただし8月単月の数値は前年同月を下回りました。
| 加盟国 | 2025年1〜8月 (千t) | 2026年1〜8月 (千t) | 増減（1〜8月） | 増減（8月単月） |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ドイツ | 21,678 | 22,968 | +6.0% | +3.1% |
| フランス | 16,232 | 16,580 | +2.1% | +0.4% |
| オランダ | 9,245 | 9,617 | +4.0% | +0.7% |
| アイルランド | 6,798 | 6,626 | −2.5% | −8.4% |
| スペイン | 5,009 | 5,095 | +1.7% | +3.3% |
| デンマーク | 3,882 | 3,973 | +2.3% | +0.1% |
| オーストリア | 2,367 | 2,516 | +6.3% | +0.7% |
| チェコ | 2,284 | 2,372 | +3.9% | +2.7% |
| フィンランド | 1,458 | 1,471 | +0.9% | +0.5% |
| ハンガリー | 1,240 | 1,232 | −0.7% | −3.3% |
| ポルトガル | 1,303 | 1,329 | +2.0% | +3.4% |
| ルーマニア | 741 | 739 | −0.3% | −3.3% |
| エストニア | 618 | 550 | −11.1% | −11.6% |
| EU-27 合計 | ~100,449 | ~103,600 | +3.1% | +0.8% |
輸出主要国の供給成長：2026年1〜8月の世界主要輸出国合計の生乳供給は平均+3.1%増（近年最高水準）。ただし8月は+1.1%まで減速し、Q4に向けてグローバル供給が正常化しつつあることを示しています。
オセアニア：ニュージーランドは9月までの累計+4.2%、オーストラリアは1〜8月で+3.8%。ただし直近月は大幅減速（ニュージーランド9月：+1.0%）。エルニーニョの影響が今後懸念されます。
南北アメリカ：北米は+2.4%（米国+2.6%、カナダ+0.4%）。南米は+3.3%（アルゼンチン+4.1%、ウルグアイ+9.2%、チリ+4.7%）。
Coletivo UE-27: As entregas totais de leite na UE-27 atingiram aproximadamente 103,6 milhões de toneladas nos primeiros oito meses de 2026, um aumento de +3,1% face ao mesmo período de 2025 — 3,2 milhões de toneladas adicionais. Contudo, este valor agregado oculta uma desaceleração acentuada no final da época: enquanto janeiro registou +5,1%, agosto ficou em apenas +0,8%.
Normalização estrutural: O ZMB aponta que esta desaceleração é parcialmente atribuível ao efeito de base — as entregas da UE em agosto e meses seguintes de 2025 tinham aumentado de forma incomum, contrariando os padrões sazonais habituais. Condições meteorológicas adversas — calor e seca em França, Áustria, Polónia e partes da Alemanha — também pesaram na produção de agosto.
Perspetiva: O ZMB prevê entregas anuais de leite na UE em 2026 em +1,8% face a 2025. Os Países Baixos já reportaram −1,7% em setembro, e espera-se que mais estados-membros fiquem abaixo dos níveis do ano anterior nos próximos meses.
| Estado-Membro | Jan–Ago 2025 (mil t) | Jan–Ago 2026 (mil t) | Variação Jan–Ago | Variação Agosto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alemanha | 21.678 | 22.968 | +6,0% | +3,1% |
| França | 16.232 | 16.580 | +2,1% | +0,4% |
| Países Baixos | 9.245 | 9.617 | +4,0% | +0,7% |
| Irlanda | 6.798 | 6.626 | −2,5% | −8,4% |
| Espanha | 5.009 | 5.095 | +1,7% | +3,3% |
| Dinamarca | 3.882 | 3.973 | +2,3% | +0,1% |
| Áustria | 2.367 | 2.516 | +6,3% | +0,7% |
| Rep. Checa | 2.284 | 2.372 | +3,9% | +2,7% |
| Hungria | 1.240 | 1.232 | −0,7% | −3,3% |
| Portugal | 1.303 | 1.329 | +2,0% | +3,4% |
| Estónia | 618 | 550 | −11,1% | −11,6% |
| Bulgária | 449 | 455 | +1,2% | +3,6% |
| UE-27 Total | ~100.449 | ~103.600 | +3,1% | +0,8% |
Crescimento da oferta nos países exportadores: A oferta combinada de leite dos principais países exportadores mundiais cresceu em média +3,1% nos primeiros oito meses de 2026. Contudo, em agosto, o crescimento abrandou para +1,1%, o mais baixo do ano, sinalizando uma normalização da oferta global a caminho do 4.º trimestre.
Oceânia: A Nova Zelândia liderou com +4,2% de crescimento acumulado até setembro de 2026. A Austrália registou +3,8% de janeiro a agosto. Ambos os mercados registaram abrandamento nos meses mais recentes.
Américas: América do Norte +2,4% acumulado, liderado pelos EUA (+2,6%). América do Sul +3,3%, com Argentina (+4,1%), Uruguai (+9,2%) e Chile (+4,7%) em destaque.
| Product | EU Price (€/kg) Week 42 |
Change vs Prev. 4 Wks | World Quot. EU (USD/T) 11.10.2026 |
World Quot. Change | Market Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butter (block) | 4.01 | −4.0% | 4,622 | −3.4% | Block butter demand cautious; packaged butter strong via retail promotions. Frozen below fresh price. |
| SMP (food grade) | 3.37 | +6.5% | 3,598 | +1.4% | Strongest mover. Significantly firmed in past weeks on tender activity and institutional demand. Feed grade stable. |
| WMP | 3.87 | +1.6% | 4,286 | −1.0% | Mixed market signals. EU price in EUR firmer vs world quotation. Export-driven demand supporting EU. |
| Cheddar | ~3.25 est. | +0.2% (wkly) | 3,575 | −3.2% | World quotations weaker. EU weekly marginal change only. Divergence between world and EU spot noted. |
EU butter (block) at 4.01 €/kg represents a meaningful correction of −4.0% from the previous four-week average, continuing the trend from September's elevated levels. The key dynamic is the bifurcation between packaged and block formats: packaged butter is moving very well on retailer promotions, while block demand from industrial buyers remains hesitant and wait-and-see in nature.
Inventories of frozen butter continue to trade at a discount to fresh product, with the price differential widening. As some school holiday periods end across German states, consumer demand may pick up modestly in the near term. However, structural softness in block demand suggests no imminent reversal of the broader downtrend.
SMP food grade is the clear outperformer this month, gaining +6.5% over the prior four-week period to reach 3.37 €/kg. This recovery follows several consecutive weeks of significant firming, driven by procurement tenders and exhibition-related demand. The ZMB Süddeutsche Börse report (KW44) notes that after this dynamic phase, the market has calmed slightly — the most recent fixing reflected only a modest upward adjustment.
SMP feed grade prices remained unchanged, reflecting lower institutional appetite. The convergence of butter and SMP prices — after wide divergence in recent years — continues, signalling an improving relative value for protein-based usage pathways.
WMP at 3.87 €/kg shows a +1.6% weekly improvement, maintaining its position as a relatively firm product. Market conditions are described as mixed: orders from Germany tend to trade toward the upper end of the price range, while product from other European origins gravitates to the lower end. Export business remains supportive.
The slight divergence between EU weekly price (+1.6% in EUR) and the world quotation (−1.0% in USD) reflects both exchange rate effects and differing reference methodologies, with the stronger EUR price suggesting firm EU domestic and regional demand.
Cheddar world quotations softened −3.2% since mid-October (as at 11.10.2026), with EU world quotations at approximately 3,575 USD/T, equating to around 3.25 €/kg at prevailing exchange rates. However, EU weekly reference data showed only a marginal +0.2% weekly change, suggesting the spot market has not yet fully reflected the world quotation movement.
The Süddeutsche Börse KW44 report highlights strong demand for Emmentaler and Schnittkäse (semi-hard cheese) across all channels including retail, food industry, food service, and export. Cheese production has declined seasonally and stocks are low and relatively young — these supply constraints are providing underlying price support domestically in Germany.
Food-grade SWP below 2.00 €/kg now largely unavailable in Germany. The Süddeutsche Börse KW44 report explicitly notes that food-grade sweet whey powder in Germany is "scarcely available below 2,000 €/tonne" and accordingly has raised the lower boundary of the price range. Medium-term further price increases appear possible. Export business remains strong. The feed-grade SWP market has calmed after a weaker phase.
| 製品 | EU価格（€/kg） 第42週 |
前4週比変化 | 国際相場 EU（USD/T） 10月11日 |
国際相場変化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| バター（ブロック） | 4.01 | −4.0% | 4,622 | −3.4% |
| SMP（食品グレード） | 3.37 | +6.5% | 3,598 | +1.4% |
| WMP | 3.87 | +1.6% | 4,286 | −1.0% |
| チェダー | ~3.25（推定） | +0.2%（週次） | 3,575 | −3.2% |
EUブロックバター（4.01 €/kg）は直近4週比−4.0%と顕著な調整を示しています。パックバターは小売プロモーションで好調に売れている一方、ブロックバターへの産業需要は様子見姿勢が続いています。冷凍品は生鮮品より低価格で取引されており、この価格差が拡大中です。
食品グレードSMPは+6.5%と今月最大の上昇を記録し、3.37 €/kgへ。入札活動や展示会関連需要が上昇を牽引した後、最近では若干落ち着いてきています。飼料グレードSMPは変化なし。
WMPは+1.6%の週次改善で3.87 €/kgを維持。市況は強弱混在。ドイツ産は価格レンジ上限付近、他の欧州産は下限付近での取引が多い。輸出需要が引き続き下支え。
食品グレードSWPはドイツ国内で2.00 €/kg未満での入手がほぼ不可能に。Süddeutsche Börse（KW44）は価格レンジ下限を引き上げ。輸出需要は引き続き良好で、中期的にはさらなる価格上昇の可能性も示唆されています。
| Produto | Preço UE (€/kg) Semana 42 |
Variação vs 4 sem. ant. | Cot. Mundial UE (USD/T) 11.10.2026 |
Variação Cot. Mundial |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manteiga (bloco) | 4,01 | −4,0% | 4.622 | −3,4% |
| SMP (grau alimentar) | 3,37 | +6,5% | 3.598 | +1,4% |
| WMP | 3,87 | +1,6% | 4.286 | −1,0% |
| Cheddar | ~3,25 est. | +0,2% (semanal) | 3.575 | −3,2% |
A manteiga em bloco da UE a 4,01 €/kg representa uma correção significativa de −4,0% face à média das quatro semanas anteriores. A manteiga embalada tem forte escoamento via promoções de retalho, enquanto a procura industrial de manteiga em bloco permanece cautelosa. A manteiga congelada continua a ser transacionada a desconto face à fresca.
O SMP grau alimentar é o produto com melhor desempenho este mês, ganhando +6,5% nas últimas quatro semanas para 3,37 €/kg. Esta recuperação foi impulsionada por concursos de aquisição e procura institucional. O SMP grau animal permaneceu estável.
O WMP a 3,87 €/kg mostra uma melhoria semanal de +1,6%. As condições de mercado são mistas. O produto originário da Alemanha tende a ser transacionado na extremidade superior da faixa de preços, enquanto o produto de outras origens europeias se situa na extremidade inferior.
O SWP grau alimentar abaixo de 2,00 €/kg está praticamente indisponível na Alemanha. A Süddeutsche Börse (KW44) elevou o limite inferior da faixa de preços. São possíveis novos aumentos de preços a médio prazo. O negócio de exportação permanece forte.
| Product | Approx. Price Range | Market Tone | Demand | Stock Level | Key Notes (KW44) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweet Whey Powder (SWP) — Food Grade | >2.00 €/kg | ↑ Firm / Rising | Strong — export & domestic | Tight | Lower price limit raised. Food-grade SWP below 2,000 €/t now scarce. Mid-term upside possible. Feed grade calmer. |
| SMP — Food Grade | ~3.37 €/kg (EU ref.) | ↑ Firm | Good — institutional/tender | Normal | Significant firming over recent weeks. Most recent fixing: slight further upward adjustment. Market calmer after dynamic phase. |
| SMP — Feed Grade | — | → Stable | Moderate | Normal | Unchanged. Lower institutional appetite vs food grade. |
| WMP | ~3.87 €/kg (EU ref.) | → Mixed / Stable | Mixed by origin | Normal | German-origin trades upper range; other EU origins at lower end. Export supporting. |
| Butter — Packaged | — | ↑ Very firm | Very good — retail promotions | Adequate | Retailer holiday promotions driving very good packaged butter demand. |
| Butter — Block 25 kg | ~4.01 €/kg (EU ref.) | ↓ Cautious | Wait-and-see / Industrial | Some frozen | Industrial buyers cautious. Frozen < fresh price. Block under pressure from inventory overhang vs packaged. |
| Emmentaler | Stable (undisclosed) | → Stable | Good | Low | Prices unchanged. Good demand. Low and relatively young stocks providing support. |
| Schnittkäse (Semi-Hard Cheese) | Firm (undisclosed) | ↑ Firm | Good — all channels | Low | Strong demand across LEH (retail), food industry, food service, and export. Low stocks. Firm pricing. |
Germany continues to be the standout performer within the EU dairy milk pool in 2026. Cumulative milk deliveries for January–August 2026 reached approximately 22,968,000 tonnes, compared to 21,678,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025 — a year-on-year increase of +6.0%. This outpaces the EU-27 average of +3.1% by a significant margin.
August 2026 alone showed a +3.1% year-on-year increase in Germany, a slight deceleration from the full-period figure but still well above the EU-27 average for August (+0.8%). The strong German performance reflects favourable grassland conditions, relatively stable feed costs, and ongoing structural efficiency improvements across the German dairy herd.
The strong German milk supply has supported robust whey production, which in turn has contributed to the tight SWP supply dynamic — a counterintuitive outcome. Despite high milk volumes, SWP below 2.00 €/kg has become scarce, reflecting strong export demand and the redirection of processing capacity toward higher-value products such as cheese and butter.
Overall, the German dairy market presents as stable and broadly balanced. Structural supply growth is being absorbed by healthy demand across all product categories. The combination of a very large German milk pool and sustained export activity positions Germany as the dominant force in EU dairy commodity price formation for Q4 2026.
| 製品 | 概算価格 | 市場トーン | 需要 | 主要コメント |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 甘性ホエイパウダー（食品グレード） | >2.00 €/kg | ↑ 堅調 | 良好（輸出・国内） | 下限価格が引き上げ。2,000€/t以下はほぼ入手不可。中期的上昇の可能性。 |
| SMP（食品グレード） | ~3.37 €/kg（EU参考） | ↑ 堅調 | 良好（入札・機関） | 数週間にわたり大幅に堅調化。直近は若干の上昇修正。 |
| SMP（飼料グレード） | — | → 安定 | 普通 | 変化なし。 |
| WMP | ~3.87 €/kg（EU参考） | → 強弱混在 | 原産地によって異なる | ドイツ産は上限付近、他EU産は下限付近での取引。 |
| バター（パック） | — | ↑ 非常に堅調 | 非常に良好（小売） | 小売プロモーションで需要旺盛。 |
| バター（ブロック25kg） | ~4.01 €/kg（EU参考） | ↓ 慎重 | 様子見（産業用） | 産業用バイヤーは慎重姿勢。冷凍品は生鮮品を下回る価格。 |
| エメンタール | 安定（非開示） | → 安定 | 良好 | 価格変わらず。在庫少なく若い。需要良好。 |
| シュニットケーゼ（セミハードチーズ） | 堅調（非開示） | ↑ 堅調 | 良好（全チャネル） | 小売・食品産業・フードサービス・輸出で旺盛な需要。在庫少。 |
ドイツは2026年もEU域内で際立った生乳生産の伸びを示しています。2026年1月〜8月累計の生乳受入量は約22,968千トンに達し（2025年同期：21,678千トン）、前年比+6.0%の増加。これはEU-27平均（+3.1%）を大幅に上回るパフォーマンスです。8月単月でも前年比+3.1%を記録しており、EU-27の8月平均（+0.8%）を大きく上回っています。
ドイツ市場全体は安定かつ概ね均衡した状態にあります。旺盛な輸出活動と持続的な国内需要が供給増を吸収しており、ドイツは2026年第4四半期のEU乳製品コモディティ価格形成において支配的な役割を担っています。
| Produto | Preço Aprox. | Tom de Mercado | Procura | Notas Principais (KW44) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soro de Leite Doce (SWP) — Grau Alimentar | >2,00 €/kg | ↑ Firme / Em Alta | Forte — exportação e doméstica | Limite inferior de preço elevado. SWP grau alimentar abaixo de 2.000 €/t praticamente indisponível. Possível subida adicional a médio prazo. |
| SMP — Grau Alimentar | ~3,37 €/kg (ref. UE) | ↑ Firme | Boa — institucional/concursos | Firme nas últimas semanas. Última fixação: ajuste ligeiramente ascendente. |
| SMP — Grau Animal | — | → Estável | Moderada | Inalterado. |
| WMP | ~3,87 €/kg (ref. UE) | → Misto / Estável | Misto por origem | Origem alemã na extremidade superior da faixa; outras origens UE na inferior. |
| Manteiga — Embalada | — | ↑ Muito firme | Muito boa — retalho | Promoções de retalho impulsionam procura muito forte. |
| Manteiga — Bloco 25 kg | ~4,01 €/kg (ref. UE) | ↓ Cauteloso | Expectante / Industrial | Compradores industriais cautelosos. Congelado abaixo do preço fresco. |
| Emmental | Estável (não divulgado) | → Estável | Boa | Preços inalterados. Boa procura. Stocks baixos e relativamente jovens. |
| Queijo Semi-duro | Firme (não divulgado) | ↑ Firme | Boa — todos os canais | Forte procura no retalho, indústria alimentar, restauração e exportação. Stocks baixos. |
A Alemanha continua a ser o destaque do pool leiteiro europeu em 2026. As entregas acumuladas de leite de janeiro a agosto de 2026 atingiram aproximadamente 22.968.000 toneladas (2025: 21.678.000 t), uma variação anual de +6,0%, superando amplamente a média da UE-27 de +3,1%. Agosto isolado registou +3,1% vs. UE-27 de +0,8%.
O mercado leiteiro alemão apresenta-se como estável e amplamente equilibrado. O forte crescimento da oferta está a ser absorvido por uma procura saudável em todas as categorias de produtos. A Alemanha ocupa uma posição dominante na formação de preços de produtos lácteos commodities da UE no 4.º trimestre de 2026.
EU feed costs continue to exert upward pressure on dairy farm profitability, registering a +3.5% year-on-year increase as measured by the DG AGRI composite feed index. While this marks a deceleration from the more severe feed cost surges seen in 2022–2023, the persistent positive growth rate means that feed remains a structural headwind for EU dairy producers.
The primary components of EU dairy farm feed costs include maize silage, compound feeds containing soy meal, and cereal grains. In 2026, cereal grain markets have benefited from broadly adequate global harvests, providing some offset. However, the global soy complex has remained tight due to elevated protein demand from aquaculture and monogastric livestock sectors, keeping compound feed costs above historical norms.
For German dairy farmers specifically, the strong milk price environment (EU milk equivalent at 42.8 €/100 kg; +2.3% YoY) is largely sufficient to offset these feed cost increases, supporting herd maintenance and investment decisions — as evidenced by the exceptional +6.0% growth in German milk deliveries during January–August 2026.
Looking at the broader EU landscape, the relationship between feed input costs and milk output prices — the so-called "feed-to-milk ratio" — remains broadly positive for EU producers. Countries with more significant structural feed cost challenges, particularly in Eastern and Northern Europe where some member states show declining milk deliveries, may face more acute margin pressure.
The feed market outlook for late Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 will be influenced by the outcome of Southern Hemisphere grain harvests (Argentina, Brazil), European winter crop planting intentions, and continued protein feed availability. The ZMB MarktSpiegel notes an overall EU milk production forecast of +1.8% for 2026 — a figure consistent with a farm profitability environment that, despite feed cost headwinds, remains broadly constructive.
Brent crude oil was quoted at 126.6 USD/barrel as at 11 October 2026 — a level well above the 2020–2022 historical average range. Elevated energy costs affect the dairy supply chain at multiple points: farm-level heating, milking equipment, and refrigeration; transport and logistics of fresh milk and dairy products; and critically, the energy-intensive processing operations of spray drying (for SMP, WMP, and SWP production), evaporation, pasteurisation, and cold chain management.
For EU dairy processors, energy typically represents 15–25% of total processing costs for powder products. At current Brent levels, energy costs for spray-drying operations remain elevated relative to pre-2021 benchmarks. This structural cost floor provides indirect support for powder product prices — processors require higher output prices to maintain adequate margins.
The elevated oil price environment also has secondary effects through increased packaging material costs (most dairy packaging contains petroleum-derived polymers) and transport costs, both of which ripple through into retail price levels across the EU.
In the context of the EU Green Deal and the dairy sector's decarbonisation agenda, some larger EU processors have been investing in energy efficiency improvements, biogas capture from whey permeate streams, and renewable energy procurement. These investments, while reducing direct energy cost exposure over time, require upfront capital and may not fully offset current energy price levels in the near term.
The net effect of the current feed and energy cost environment is a modest but persistent margin squeeze for EU dairy producers and processors, partially offset by the firming milk and commodity prices seen in Q3–Q4 2026.
EU飼料コストは前年比+3.5%（DG AGRI複合飼料指数）の上昇を示しており、酪農農家の収益性に引き続き上昇圧力をかけています。ただし、2022〜2023年の急騰期と比べると上昇ペースは鈍化しています。主要な飼料コスト構成要素であるトウモロコシサイレージ、大豆ミール配合飼料、穀物は、2026年の世界的なほぼ適切な収穫量により穀物は若干の緩和が見られるものの、大豆複合市場は依然ひっ迫しています。
ドイツの酪農農家にとっては、堅調な生乳価格（EU生乳相当価格 42.8 €/100 kg；前年比+2.3%）がこれらの飼料コスト上昇を相殺するに概ね十分なレベルにあり、これが2026年1〜8月のドイツ生乳受入量+6.0%という顕著な成長を支えています。
ブレント原油は2026年10月11日時点で1バレル126.6 USDと高水準を維持しています。高エネルギーコストは農場レベルの暖房・設備・冷蔵から始まり、輸送・物流、そして特に噴霧乾燥（SMP・WMP・SWP製造）、蒸発・殺菌・コールドチェーン管理などエネルギー集約的な加工工程まで、サプライチェーン全体に影響を与えます。EU乳製品加工業者にとって、粉末製品ではエネルギーが総加工コストの15〜25%を占めており、現在の原油水準ではこのコスト床が製品価格を下支えする間接的な要因となっています。
Os custos de alimentação animal na UE continuam a exercer pressão ascendente sobre a rentabilidade das explorações leiteiras, registando um aumento anual de +3,5% (índice composto DG AGRI). Embora este ritmo represente uma desaceleração face às subidas mais severas de 2022-2023, a taxa de crescimento persistentemente positiva significa que a alimentação animal continua a ser um vento contrário estrutural para os produtores de leite da UE.
Para os produtores alemães especificamente, o ambiente de preços do leite (preço equivalente de leite da UE: 42,8 €/100 kg; +2,3% anual) é amplamente suficiente para compensar esses aumentos de custos — evidenciado pelo crescimento excecional de +6,0% nas entregas alemãs de leite em janeiro-agosto de 2026.
O petróleo Brent foi cotado a 126,6 USD/barril em 11 de outubro de 2026, bem acima da média histórica de 2020-2022. Os custos elevados de energia afetam a cadeia de valor láctea em múltiplos pontos: ao nível da exploração, no transporte e logística, e criticamente, nas operações de transformação intensivas em energia (secagem por atomização para SMP, WMP e SWP). Para os processadores de lacticínios da UE, a energia representa tipicamente 15-25% dos custos totais de transformação de produtos em pó.
The EUR/USD exchange rate at approximately 1.10 positions the euro at a broadly neutral level relative to its medium-term trading range. Neither a significantly strong nor weak euro, this level provides a relatively predictable export competitiveness backdrop for EU dairy exporters trading in USD-denominated international markets.
EU dairy commodity export prices — particularly for SMP, WMP, and butter — are internationally quoted in USD/tonne (as reported by DG AGRI world quotations). At an EUR/USD of ~1.10, EU dairy exports remain cost-competitive on world markets, supporting continued export volumes. The ZMB MarktSpiegel notes that SWP export business remains strong, and EU SMP export demand is evidenced by the recent price firming.
For EU dairy producers and processors, key commodity inputs that are priced in USD include crude oil (affecting energy costs), soy and protein feed components, and global freight. At EUR/USD ~1.10, these USD-denominated costs translate into EUR at rates that are neither exceptionally favourable nor exceptionally burdensome — a broadly neutral input cost environment from a currency perspective.
The elevated Brent oil price of 126.6 USD/bbl translates to approximately 115 €/bbl at current EUR/USD rates — still a structurally high cost level for EU dairy processors dependent on energy for drying operations.
The EUR also moves against key dairy export market currencies: the Chinese Yuan (CNY), Japanese Yen (JPY), Saudi Riyal (SAR), and British Pound (GBP). DG AGRI data for the period reflects an overall context where EU dairy export volumes have been broadly supported by competitive EUR pricing in emerging market destinations — particularly Asia and the Middle East — which absorb significant volumes of EU SMP and WMP.
The UK remains an important destination for EU dairy products (particularly cheese and butter), and the EUR/GBP rate continues to be a relevant factor for German and Irish dairy exporters supplying the British market.
EUR/USD約1.10という水準は、ユーロが中期的な取引レンジに対して概ね中立な位置にあることを示しています。EU乳製品の輸出業者にとっては、予測可能な輸出競争力の背景を提供しており、国際的にUSD建てで取引されるSMP・WMP・バターなどの輸出競争力を維持しています。ZMB MarktSpiegelはSWP輸出ビジネスが引き続き好調であることを指摘しており、EU-SMPの需要もSMPの価格上昇によって裏付けられています。
一方、主要なUSD建て投入コスト（原油、大豆・タンパク質飼料、海上輸送）は現在の為替レートでは概ね中立的な水準に翻訳され、通貨面での過大な負担は生じていません。ブレント原油126.6 USD/バレルは現在の為替レートで約115 €/バレルに相当し、乾燥加工を行うEU乳製品加工業者にとっては依然として構造的に高いコスト水準です。
A taxa EUR/USD de aproximadamente 1,10 posiciona o euro num nível amplamente neutro face à sua faixa de negociação de médio prazo. Este nível proporciona um cenário de competitividade de exportação relativamente previsível para os exportadores de lacticínios da UE que transacionam em mercados internacionais cotados em USD.
Os preços de exportação de lacticínios da UE — nomeadamente SMP, WMP e manteiga — são cotados internacionalmente em USD/tonelada. A um EUR/USD de ~1,10, as exportações de lacticínios da UE mantêm a competitividade de custos nos mercados mundiais, apoiando os volumes de exportação continuados.
Para produtores e processadores de lacticínios da UE, os principais inputs cotados em USD incluem o petróleo bruto, a soja e componentes de alimentação proteica, e o frete global. A EUR/USD ~1,10, estes custos em USD traduzem-se em EUR a taxas nem excecionalmente favoráveis, nem excecionalmente onerosas — um ambiente de custo de input amplamente neutro do ponto de vista cambial.
O Brent a 126,6 USD/barril traduz-se em aproximadamente 115 €/barril às taxas EUR/USD atuais — ainda um nível de custo estruturalmente elevado para os processadores de lacticínios da UE dependentes de energia para operações de secagem.
EU milk production is entering the seasonal low-supply phase typical of October–March. After a strong first eight months of 2026 (EU-27: +3.1% vs. 2025), the August data showing deceleration to +0.8% YoY foreshadows a period of tighter supply increments. The ZMB full-year forecast of +1.8% for EU-27 in 2026 implies that the H2 growth rate will be notably lower than H1 — consistent with the historical seasonal pattern of autumn/winter milk yield reduction.
Globally, the supply picture is more mixed. New Zealand is through September at +4.2% YoY — a supportive global supply contributor — while Ireland's ongoing contraction (−8.4% in August alone) removes a key EU exporter from the global growth contribution. Net effect: global supply growth is decelerating from its H1 2026 peak, which is supportive for commodity prices into year-end.
SMP food grade is the month's standout performer (+6.5% over four weeks to 3.37 €/kg). The dynamic phase appears to have largely played out, with the most recent Süddeutsche Börse fixing reflecting only a modest further adjustment. The question for Q4 is whether the accumulated price increase is durable or whether it will retrace once near-term tender demand is satisfied.
Fundamentally, the case for continued SMP price support rests on: (1) tightening seasonal EU milk supply reducing casein and whey diversion; (2) sustained export demand, particularly from Asian institutional buyers; and (3) the narrowing of the butter/SMP price spread, which removes incentives to over-process toward butter at the expense of powder.
Butter block at 4.01 €/kg (−4.0% vs. prior four weeks) reflects industrial buyer caution in a market where frozen inventories are at a discount to fresh and industrial demand is hesitant. This is expected to remain the tone through the immediate weeks of Q4, with a potential seasonal uplift as Christmas-driven retail demand accelerates packaged formats.
The butterfat balance will be closely watched: with cheese production declining (DG AGRI shows EU cheese output −2.8% to −3.8% YTD), the co-production of butterfat from cheese whey is also reduced, limiting cream availability. This structural factor has historically supported butter prices in winter. A recovery in block prices toward the packaged butter level remains a plausible scenario for late Q4 2026.
The structural tightness in food-grade SWP (sub-2.00 €/kg now unavailable in Germany) reflects two concurrent dynamics: (1) strong and sustained demand from the sports nutrition, functional food, and animal health sectors; and (2) the redirection of cheese production, which co-produces sweet whey, toward more domestic consumption versus export. Despite high German milk volumes, SWP supply has not kept pace with demand growth — a dynamic that appears likely to persist through Q4 2026.
The elevated Brent oil price at 126.6 USD/bbl reflects ongoing global supply management by OPEC+ and geopolitical risk premiums embedded in crude markets. For EU dairy, the primary transmission mechanism is through energy costs for drying and processing, as well as logistics and packaging. These cost pressures provide an indirect floor under commodity prices.
The EUR at approximately 1.10 vs. USD provides a broadly neutral competitive position for EU dairy exporters. Should the EUR strengthen materially above 1.15, EU export competitiveness in USD-denominated markets would face headwinds — a scenario worth monitoring given potential shifts in US and ECB monetary policy through early 2027.
EU生乳生産は10〜3月に特有の季節的低供給フェーズに移行しています。ZMBの2026年EU-27通年予測である+1.8%は、H2成長率がH1を大幅に下回ることを示唆しており、秋冬の生乳収量低下という歴史的な季節パターンと一致しています。グローバルには、ニュージーランドが9月時点で+4.2%と支援的な一方、アイルランドの急激な収縮（8月単月−8.4%）が世界的な供給成長への寄与を削減。純効果：世界供給成長は2026年H1のピークから減速しており、年末に向けてコモディティ価格を支持しています。
食品グレードSMPは4週間で+6.5%と今月最大のパフォーマー（3.37 €/kg）。動的局面は概ね終わり、最近の取引所の価格決定はわずかな上方修正を反映するにとどまります。第4四半期の焦点は、近期の入札需要が満たされた後、累積価格上昇が持続的かどうかです。継続的なSMP価格支持の根拠は：(1)EU生乳の季節的ひっ迫；(2)アジアからの継続的な輸出需要；(3)バター/SMP価格スプレッドの縮小。
ブロックバター（4.01 €/kg；直近4週比−4.0%）は産業用バイヤーの慎重姿勢を反映。ただし、チーズ生産の減少（EU-27で−2.8%〜−3.8%）はバターファットの副産物も減少させ、クリーム可用性を制限。この構造的要因が歴史的に冬季のバター価格を支持してきており、2026年第4四半期後半のブロック価格回復は合理的なシナリオです。
原油126.6 USD/バレルはOPEC+の供給管理と地政学的リスクプレミアムを反映。EU乳業への主な影響は乾燥・加工エネルギーコストと物流です。EUR/USD約1.10はEU乳製品輸出業者に概ね中立な競争的ポジションを提供。EURが1.15を大幅に上回れば、USD建て市場でのEU輸出競争力が制約される可能性があり、2027年初頭にかけての米国・ECBの金融政策の変化に注目が必要です。
A produção de leite da UE está a entrar na fase sazonal de baixa oferta típica de outubro a março. A previsão anual do ZMB de +1,8% para a UE-27 em 2026 implica que a taxa de crescimento do 2.º semestre será notavelmente inferior à do 1.º — consistente com o padrão sazonal histórico de redução do rendimento leiteiro no outono/inverno. A nível global, a Nova Zelândia contribui positivamente (+4,2% até setembro), enquanto a contração contínua da Irlanda (−8,4% só em agosto) retira um exportador-chave da contribuição global para o crescimento.
O SMP grau alimentar é o produto em destaque deste mês (+6,5% nas últimas quatro semanas para 3,37 €/kg). A fase dinâmica parece ter-se dissipado em grande medida. O caso para um suporte continuado de preços do SMP assenta em: (1) aperto sazonal do leite da UE; (2) procura de exportação sustentada, particularmente de compradores institucionais asiáticos; (3) estreitamento do spread de preços manteiga/SMP.
A manteiga em bloco a 4,01 €/kg (−4,0% vs. quatro semanas anteriores) reflete a cautela dos compradores industriais. Com a produção de queijo em declínio (−2,8% a −3.8%), a coprodução de gordura de manteiga do soro de queijo também é reduzida, limitando a disponibilidade de nata. Este fator estrutural tem historicamente suportado os preços da manteiga no inverno, tornando uma recuperação dos preços do bloco para o final do 4.º trimestre de 2026 um cenário plausível.
O Brent elevado a 126,6 USD/barril reflete a gestão de oferta da OPEP+ e prémios de risco geopolítico. O EUR/USD de ~1,10 proporciona uma posição competitiva amplamente neutra para os exportadores de lacticínios da UE. Caso o EUR se valorize materialmente acima de 1,15, a competitividade das exportações da UE em mercados denominados em USD seria afetada — um cenário a monitorizar dado potenciais mudanças na política monetária dos EUA e do BCE até início de 2027.
Macro picture: The EU dairy complex enters October in a cautiously balanced state. After an exceptional first half of 2026 — when EU milk deliveries consistently outpaced prior-year levels by 2.5–5.1% — the pace of expansion cooled markedly in August 2026 to just +0.8% YoY. This deceleration reflects both a demanding prior-year base and increasingly adverse weather conditions across key producing regions.
Price divergence: The widest market story this month is the split between protein and fat markets. SMP prices have surged +6.5% over the past four weeks, driven by procurement tenders and institutional demand, while butter has retreated −4.0% as seasonal consumer demand softens. WMP remains firm amid export interest.
Supply signals: ZMB forecasts EU-27 full-year 2026 milk deliveries at +1.8% above 2025, revised down from earlier estimates, as the autumn correction deepens. Some member states — including the Netherlands (−1.7% in September) — have already crossed below prior-year baselines.